Operating again is crucial place in fantasy soccer, so avoiding gamers who might fall in need of expectations as a consequence of their scenario or have crimson flags on their resume is essential. Our Yahoo analysts take a tough take a look at the working backs place and determine 5 candidates to fade at draft price.
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Christian McCaffrey, 49ers (Yahoo ADP 5.6)
McCaffrey’s ceiling is as excessive as any participant in fantasy, nevertheless it’s exhausting to draft him with confidence given final 12 months’s workload, some indicators of decline and his age. Once you embrace the 49ers’ postseason appearances, CMC dealt with 450 touches in 2025. There have solely been 10 backs who posted 400-plus touches (with playoffs) over the past 10 years and simply three of them had been hits for fantasy the subsequent season, per Yahoo’s Joel Smyth. Much more regarding, these three backs had been all 25 or youthful throughout these campaigns, whereas McCaffrey turned 30 in June. He additionally noticed a steep dropoff in effectivity, ending forty eighth in yards per carry, forty second in explosive run price, forty third in dashing success price and forty seventh in yards after contact per try, in keeping with Fantasy Factors information. That is a far cry from the place he was two years in the past, when he ranked inside the highest 10 in all 4 of these classes.
If I go on McCaffrey and he defies the chances with one other massive season, I will survive since I nonetheless have a powerful Spherical 1 choose on my staff. But when I draft him at ADP realizing what we all know and he fails to ship, I will by no means let myself neglect it. — Justin Boone
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David Montgomery, Texans (52.4)
Montgomery should overcome his profession wear-and-tear together with an OL that is been horrific for everything of the C.J. Stroud period. The Texans are thirty first in EPA per carry and twenty second in rush yards per sport since 2023 when DeMeco Ryans and Stroud had been delivered to Houston. If Montgomery is Joe Mixon, then I am improper. However Montgomery will not be paid like Mixon was, nor has had the profession Mixon had earlier than his RB9 end in 2024.
Woody Marks is a second-year participant with a greater passing-down profile and improved play between the tackles based mostly on his camp studies and preseason tape. Montgomery’s missed tackles per contact price final 12 months was 18% when it was 27%, 21%, and 24% within the earlier three seasons, and if he isn’t clearly higher than Marks, then there is not any motive to make this a bellcow backfield. Even when he’s a workhorse for yet one more 12 months, the Texans OL is beginning an out-of-position rookie middle and three doubtlessly washed veterans. — Hayden Winks
Extra fades by place
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Large Receivers (coming Thursday)
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Tight Finish (coming Friday)
Quinshon Judkins, Browns (ADP 53.2)
Once you draft a fantasy working again, you are drafting into the village that helps that working again. That is a scary proposition for Judkins. The Browns are projected to win simply 5.5 video games, they’re tied to the most important clown present quarterback room within the league and so they have maybe the worst offensive line in soccer. Judkins can also be getting back from ankle surgical procedure. Fantasy scoring at this place is basically correlated to staff success; good luck bankrolling the 2026 Browns for something. Judkins is at present the RB22 in Yahoo ADP, a ticket I am not excited by punching. — Scott Pianowski
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Tony Pollard, Titans (ADP 85.5)
Pollard’s greatest end in half-PPR FPPG the final three seasons is RB22. Has there been sufficient optimistic change this offseason for him to interrupt again into the highest 20? No, fairly the other I would argue. Coming into his age-29 season off three straight years of an enormous 275+ contact workload (one among solely three RBs), the Titans and Brian Daboll look to have extra of a committee method with Tyjae Spears. The receiving sport is particularly restricted, making Pollard extra depending on early downs and red-zone work. That may be a lot effective for some, however for Pollard on the Titans offense with this offensive line, it is not the perfect. There is a good likelihood Tennessee is persistently taking part in from behind whereas Pollard is unlikely to interrupt previous six TDs for the fourth straight 12 months. The upside is bleak with an opportunity of being unstartable. — Joel Smyth
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J.Okay. Dobbins, Broncos (ADP 96.4)
If we’re adhering to the recommendation that “quantity is king,” then Dobbins already has a declare to the RB1 throne in Denver. By means of 10 weeks, Dobbins was one among 20 rushers proudly owning 60% or extra of his staff’s carries. Coupled with a 70% goal-line price, Dobbins had a lot of the fantasy-relevant touches on lock. However a more in-depth take a look at his utilization highlights the fragility of his ’26 outlook. Of his 153 makes an attempt, 145 got here on first or second down. RJ Harvey earned extra snaps and alternatives in apparent passing conditions. Plus, his 10.0 routes per sport on early downs had been simply forward of Judkins (9.9) and about as many targets per sport as Jordan Mason (1.3). Merely put, Dobbins has fewer outs to fulfill his draft price.
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Regardless of Harvey’s struggles as a runner, his collegiate receiving profile immediately translated, as he was ninth in YPRR after taking up the starter position. And Jonah Coleman is greater than able to tackle the short-yardage reps after HC Sean Payton pulled Coleman from his preseason debut in opposition to the Falcons. If you happen to actually need to add an RB with a restricted scope of projectable work, draft the aforementioned Mason or Chris Rodriguez Jr. later. — Chris Allen
Evaluation from the perfect within the enterprise
The Playbook is powered by a few of fantasy soccer’s most-trusted analysts: Justin Boone (the top-ranked in-season ranker of 2025), Matt Harmon, Josh Norris, Joel Smyth, Scott Pianowski and Hayden Winks. This is not one analyst’s opinion. It is a consensus of the sharpest minds in fantasy soccer, that includes recommendation you possibly can depend on.
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