Sept. 8, 2026, 3:00 a.m. ET
- Each events are hoping to win the NH seat of their quest to take the U.S. Senate, which is narrowly managed by Republicans 53-47.
- Within the Republican main, Sununu is dealing with former Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass.
- Within the Democratic main, Pappas dealing with a rising problem from scientist and first-time candidate Karishma Manzur.
In some ways, Rep. Chris Pappas, D-New Hampshire, and former Sen. John E. Sununu, R-New Hampshire, are performing like they’re already their respective celebration’s nominee for U.S. Senate. They’re buying and selling jabs at one another and largely ignoring their main competitors – Sununu even declined a debate.
However they do have main opponents who’re nonetheless within the working, and ones that, if elected, may have an effect on their celebration’s possibilities in November.
The New Hampshire Senate seat is open this yr after longtime Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-New Hampshire, introduced her retirement. Each events are hoping to win the seat of their quest to take the U.S. Senate, which is narrowly managed by Republicans, 53-47.
Within the Republican main, Sununu is dealing with former Sen. Scott Brown, R-Massachusetts. Within the Democratic main, Pappas is dealing with a rising problem from scientist and first-time candidate Karishma Manzur. Each primaries additionally characteristic a number of different little-known candidates.
Sununu and Pappas are thought of the extra “electable” candidates, and a win by both of their main opponents may put their celebration’s possibilities of profitable in jeopardy come November, in line with New Hampshire political pundits.
The races are each being impacted by nationwide politics: the Republican race by a Trump endorsement and the Democratic race by a nationwide pattern towards anti-establishment candidates. Comparable dynamics are at play in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District too, as crowded fields of candidates vie for the spot left by Pappas.
Senate GOP main: Sununu vs. Brown
Republicans are hoping to flip the seat to extend their slim lead within the Senate, and GOP leaders, together with President Donald Trump, appear to see Sununu as having a greater probability than Brown.
The Sununu household has lengthy been in style in New Hampshire: John H. Sununu and Chris Sununu served three and 4 phrases as governor respectively. Even earlier than Trump endorsed him, John E. Sununu was main Brown within the polls by double digits. He has additionally raised essentially the most cash: $4.1 million in contrast with Brown’s $2.1 million, in line with FEC filings. And Sununu has gained this seat earlier than, defeating then-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen in 2002 to serve one time period earlier than Shaheen defeated him in 2008.
The polls present that Sununu additionally stands a greater probability towards Pappas, ought to he be the Democratic nominee. In hypothetical matchups in an Aug. 26 College of New Hampshire Survey Heart ballot, Sununu and Pappas have been primarily tied, whereas Pappas led Brown by 5 factors. In an Aug. 20 Saint Anselm School Survey Heart ballot, Pappas led Sununu by seven factors however Brown by 12.
If Brown have been to win the first, nationwide Republicans could be much less all for investing cash within the New Hampshire Senate race, UNH political science professor Dante Scala stated.
“In comparison with Sununu, I feel Brown is kind of flippantly regarded by nationwide Republicans,” Scala stated. “I feel they’d a lot quite make investments, say, in Wisconsin, as an example, simply to call one state, and attempt to attempt to flip that than to flip New Hampshire with Brown.”
Sununu leads the Republican discipline within the Senate main by a large margin, in line with latest polls. Within the UNH ballot, he was main by 40 proportion factors, and by 30 proportion factors within the Saint Anselm ballot.
He additionally dropped out of a debate with Brown the week earlier than the first, signaling his confidence, UNH Survey Heart Director Andy Smith stated.
Nonetheless, “loopy stuff occurs in primaries,” he stated.
“I’d be stunned if he have been to lose now,” Smith stated, referring to Sununu. “Not full shocked, however I’d be stunned.”
Senate Democratic main: Pappas faces surging progressive
For a lot of the Democratic main for U.S. Senate, Pappas, a well-liked four-term consultant endorsed by Shaheen to succeed her, appeared certain to sail to a simple victory.
He nonetheless leads by double digits within the polls, however not too long ago, Manzur, a scientist, has gained. Within the August UNH ballot, she had minimize Pappas’s lead in half, and his lead dropped by 10 factors within the Saint Anselm ballot. Along with her assist from progressives and younger folks, her momentum appears to mirror races across the nation, the place anti-establishment, extra progressive candidates are capitalizing on voters’ frustrations with their celebration’s method to coping with the Trump administration.
“Does Pappas have the higher hand? Positive, proper. However I feel there is a good probability that folks will have a look at the margin on main evening and say, ‘Oh,’ and be a little bit stunned,” Scala stated. “I feel Karishma is extra able to a shock on main evening than Scott Brown is, simply because there’s that vitality.”
In latest weeks, Pappas has appeared to acknowledge and reply to the problem, New Hampshire Democratic operative Steve Marchand stated, as he touted endorsements from high-profile figures like former Vice President Kamala Harris and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and went on CNN to emphasize the competitiveness of the overall election race.
Within the UNH ballot, those that assist Pappas are almost definitely to say it’s due to his previous expertise and since he has the very best probability of profitable the overall election.
If Manzur gained and was to face the well-known Sununu in November, “it will actually put the seat in play,” Scala stated.
“I imply, arguably, it’s in play already,” Scala continued. “But when there have been Manzur, who can be largely unknown to the overall voters in New Hampshire, coming from the far left of the celebration, I feel that may change the narrative in a single day.”
Manzur pushes again towards the electability argument, calling it a “self-fulfilling prophecy,” in addition to “fearmongering” to recommend that not voting for Pappas is basically a vote for Sununu.
“There is no such thing as a such factor as electability. Truly, I am very electable,” she stated. “Each voter will get one vote. That is it, and that individual ought to vote based mostly on which candidate aligns with their values.”
In an announcement, Chris Pappas for Senate marketing campaign supervisor Rachel Petri described Pappas as a “battle-tested candidate who has delivered for New Hampshire.”
“We’re constructing the strongest potential marketing campaign with assist from small enterprise homeowners, organized labor, and Granite Staters from throughout the political spectrum to take the battle to John Sununu who stands with Donald Trump and company particular pursuits,” Petri continued.
Pappas remains to be the favourite, Scala stated, however “bizarre issues can occur in primaries, particularly low-turnout primaries.”
District 1 race: Something may occur within the open seat primaries
In each primaries for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, anybody may get the nomination.
Each events are eying this traditionally purple district, which Vice President Kamala Harris gained by simply a few factors in 2024. It’s rated “Doubtless D” by the Cook dinner Political Report, and Democrats have dominated the district for the previous decade.
On the Democratic facet, polls have discovered former Portsmouth Metropolis Councilor Stefany Shaheen and New Hampshire Democratic Occasion Vice Chair Maura Sullivan, each thought of extra average, institution candidates, tied on the prime, whereas Hampton Choose Board Chair Carleigh Beriont, who has painted herself because the progressive different, is gaining.
“I feel the presumption out there’s that they’re going to hold the seat if Sullivan or Shaheen’s the nominee,” Scala stated.
Both manner, he thinks Democrats have a robust probability at protecting the seat, however “I do suppose if a progressive wins the nomination, like Beriont subsequent Tuesday, nationwide Republicans will at the least give the seat a tough look,” he stated.
Within the Republican main, Trump has endorsed Anthony DiLorenzo, a businessman and first-time candidate, signaling that Republicans might imagine that he has the very best probability to win. However that race can be too near name. Whereas the Saint Anselm ballot discovered DiLorenzo main businesswoman Hollie Noveletsky 30% to 17%, the UNH ballot discovered Noveletsky main 28% to 25%.
