The 2026 FIBA Girls’s World Cup will tip off Friday in Berlin, Germany, and if Group USA needs to win a fifth consecutive gold medal on the competitors, it should do one thing it hasn’t finished in a decade: win a serious match with out four-time WNBA MVP A’ja Wilson. 

The 2016 Olympics had been the final time Group USA took house a gold medal on the Olympics or World Cup with out Wilson, who has established herself as the very best participant on the earth. Whereas Wilson was initially named to the roster, USA Basketball introduced Monday that she and Kelsey Plum would miss the match because of well being issues. 

Whereas Group USA stays the favourite to win gold later, Wilson’s absence will make the duty far tougher. Wilson was Group USA’s main scorer on the 2020 Olympics, 2022 World Cup and 2024 Olympics. She put up 21 factors, 13 rebounds and 4 blocks in a one-point win over France within the gold medal sport in Paris.

Girls’s FIBA World Cup odds

Group USA has been drawn into Group D for the group stage and can start its marketing campaign on Friday in opposition to China, earlier than dealing with Italy on Sunday and Czechia (+40000) on Monday. The knockout stage will start with qualification rounds on Sept. 8 and 9. Group USA will seemingly qualify straight to the quarterfinals, that are set for Sept. 10, adopted by the semifinals on Sept. 12 and the ultimate on Sept. 13. 

Forward of all of the motion in Berlin, let’s check out which groups have the very best likelihood of upsetting Group USA. 

The lengthy photographs

🇨🇳 China

Group USA will face the largest frontcourt on the earth when it meets China within the group-stage opener on Friday. China boasts 7-foot-3 Zhang Ziyu and 6-foot-9 Han Xu, although 6-foot-7 Li Yueru will miss the occasion because of passport points. No different nation can match that dimension, and the Chinese language will present a singular problem for all opponents. Measurement is the one benefit China can have on Group USA, nevertheless, and that will not be sufficient over the course of 40 minutes. 

🇩🇪 Germany

The host nation doesn’t have a wealthy historical past in girls’s basketball, however sisters Satou and Nyara Sabally have put Germany on the map lately. The Germans certified for the Olympics for the primary time in 2024, and had been hoping to make some noise this yr of their second-ever World Cup look. Alas, Satou Sabally is not going to take part because of ongoing concussion points, which all however ended these goals. They nonetheless have some WNBA expertise in Nyara, Leonie Fiebich, Frieda Bühner and Luisa Geiselsöder, however not sufficient to significantly problem Group USA. 

🇦🇺 Australia

The Opals suffered an enormous loss when veteran capturing guard Sami Whitcomb was dominated out of the World Cup because of a left knee harm. Whitcomb was a key determine on Australia’s medal-winning groups on the 2018 and 2022 World Cups and the 2024 Olympics, and was named MVP of the World Cup Qualifying Event in Istanbul in March. Even at 38, she remained Australia’s finest perimeter participant, and the trail to an upset over Group USA was closely reliant on her going off from 3-point vary. Ezi Magbegor and Alanna Smith are a strong frontcourt mixture, however with out Whitcomb, it is onerous to see how the Aussies have sufficient firepower to beat the Individuals. 

You may see a path

🇪🇸 Spain

Group USA didn’t play any warm-up video games for the World Cup because of the WNBA schedule, so the Individuals’ final aggressive sport was their 14-point win over Spain within the closing sport of the World Cup Qualifying Event in San Juan, Puerto Rico, in March. The American roster heading to Berlin is even higher, which makes it simple to write down off Spain’s possibilities. 

And to make certain, Spain could be a giant underdog. However the Spaniards have a pleasant mixture of thrilling younger expertise and expertise in Awa Fam and Iyana Martín, the Nos. 3 and seven picks, respectively, within the 2026 WNBA Draft, and Megan DiLeo, Raquel Carrera, Alba Torrens and Maria Conde. 

Like Belgium, the veterans have been collectively for a very long time, and Spain is coming off a second-place end on the 2025 EuroBasket Girls and a fifth-place end on the 2024 Olympics — the latter notably with out Fam or Martín, who’ve given this group a serious inflow of expertise. Spain would don’t have any likelihood in a collection in opposition to Group USA, however they hung round of their matchup six months in the past regardless of capturing 4 of 16 (25%) from 3-point vary. There’s sufficient there to check a state of affairs the place Spain can steal a sport if every part goes its method. 

🇧🇪 Belgium

Belgium doesn’t have many family names, however outdoors of the US, no nation has had extra success on the worldwide degree lately. The Black Cats, who at the moment are coached by three-time WNBA Coach of the 12 months Mike Thibault, have received the final two EuroBasket gold medals, completed fourth on the 2024 Olympics and fifth on the 2022 World Cup. 

Led by Emma Meesseman, who took this WNBA season off to concentrate on her worldwide duties, Belgium is a particularly cohesive group that performs an unselfish type heavy on ball motion and 3-point capturing. Throughout its World Cup Qualifying Event in China in March, Belgium went an ideal 5-0, helping on a outstanding 156 of 171 discipline objectives (91.2% help charge) and capturing 65 of 151 (43%) from 3-point vary.

Belgium can’t match Group USA, and even France, for that matter, on pure expertise. However this group is aggressive at each main worldwide match. Crucially, the Belgians is not going to be afraid of the Individuals. They hung proper with Group USA till the ultimate minutes on the 2024 Olympics in Paris and Group USA wanted a buzzer-beating putback from Breanna Stewart to win their matchup in Antwerp throughout Olympic qualifying in 2024. 

🇫🇷 The primary contender: France

Two summers in the past in Paris, France led Group USA with lower than 5 minutes to play within the gold medal sport, however misplaced by a degree as a result of Gabby Williams‘ foot was on the 3-point line when she made a shot on the buzzer. If a number of performs had gone in another way, the French might have ended the Individuals’ Olympic dominance, which dates again to 1996. 

If any staff goes to cease the Individuals in Berlin, the French have by far the very best likelihood. No different nation outdoors of the US has as many high-level WNBA gamers. 

Williams is likely to be the Defensive Participant of the 12 months and her Valkyries teammate Janelle Salaün is nearly actually going to be the Sixth Participant of the 12 months. Carla Leite, Leïla Lacan and Pauline Astier are three of the very best younger guards within the league and Dominique Malonga is among the finest younger bigs. Add in vets like Marine Johannès and Valeriane Ayayi, and France completely has the expertise to win one sport in opposition to Group USA. 

Crucially, France has the guards and wings to present Group USA an actual check on each side of the ball. The Individuals won’t be able to overwhelm them on the perimeter, as they’ve finished to most of their opponents over time. Leite is among the finest playmakers within the WNBA. Astier, Johannès, and Williams can all create their very own photographs. Johannès and Salaün are elite 3-point shooters, and Williams and Lacan are All-WNBA caliber defenders. 

The most important problem for France in a possible matchup with Group USA will probably be within the paint because of the absence of middle Iliana Rupert, who’s pregnant. With out Wilson suiting up for the Individuals, nevertheless, the expertise hole down low isn’t fairly as massive as it might have been, which is nice information for France.